My gut still tells me JEB’s the guy. On Saturday’s show, I predicted that JEB would do well in the debate that night then surprise in New Hampshire by coming in third or fourth…that seems to be happening. So how does JEB get from third or fourth to number one?
Let’s assume Trump has a 35% or so ceiling–that is, he will never get more than a large minority of the vote, so if the anti-Trump vote coalesces behind one of the establishment guys, that guy could win the nomination. Rather than that having to happen at the convention, I think it will happen in time for Super Tuesday to be decisive…Bush could be neck-and-neck with Trump in South Carolina if Christie and Fiorina, for example, bow out and endorse JEB, and their voters actually move over to JEB (weirdly, there haven’t been polls taken in South Carolina for two weeks so we can’t be sure of the math)…
But what to make of Kasich’s strong showing in New Hampshire? Could JEB make Kasich his running mate to get the Ohio vote while JEB gets Florida?…Is JEB’s Mexican wife, Spanish language skills and Catholicism enough to get a critical mass of Hispanics to vote for him? Or does he need Rubio for that? As Malina pointed out on my show Saturday, it might get tricky to have Rubio and JEB on the same ticket since the Twelfth Amendment (see below) would make it impossible for Florida electors to vote for JEB and Rubio at the same time…But a JEB/Kasich ticket might just be too darn goofy…then again, goofy white dudes are really the norm rather than the exception, aren’t they?
FULL TEXT OF THE TWELFTH AMENDMENT TO THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION
The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and all persons voted for as Vice-President and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate.
The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted.
The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.[Note 1]
The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.