This week on the show we talked about a list I came upon: Top Ten Global Risks we face over the next year. Here’s the list:
10. Regime implosion in North Korea, on the basis that the surprisingly rapid acclamation of Kim Jong-un as ‘great successor’ to his father is a façade.
9. A deflationary trap in the United States similar to what Japan experienced in 1992-95, with dire consequences for global growth.
8. Cartels capture the Mexican state, wherein the essential functions and institutions of government are ceded to powerful drug lords.
7. A Saudi popular uprising, following from the upheaval in 2011 in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, and deep and persistent instability in Syria.
6. Conflict in the South China Sea, reflecting Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states’ concerns about China’s assertive, nationalistic posturing in the region.
5. State collapse in Pakistan, entailing the disintegration of the military and civilian institutions and the eruption of widespread political violence.
4. Russian authoritarianism, whereby the siloviki – ‘men of force’ – dominate the next government and jeopardise foreign investment and strategic stability alike.
3. European disintegration extending far beyond a change in the shape of the euro area, and threatening the institutional and structural cohesion of the entire European project.
2. Military conflict with Iran, and specifically a ‘proxy war’ with Saudi Arabia, altering the geopolitical calculus of the entire region and drawing in actors from around the globe.
1. Sharp economic slowdown in China, which may catalyse wider political and social fracturing – and could plunge the global economy back into recession.
I found the list here. It was originally published by Oxford Analytica and you can see last year’s list and this year’s list side-by-side at my favorite website zerohedge.
I also mentioned a lawsuit accusing of fraud the victorious party in the recent Mexican presidential election – you can read about that here. This is so thoroughly NOT being covered by US news that I could only find it on a Spanish language blog – and I don’t even speak Spanish! Fortunately, the lawsuit itself is in English so just scroll down.
I also referred to a book I read recently Drug Crazy and one I am reading now, The Underground Empire, both about the Drug War.
I hope you enjoyed the show! If you missed it, look for show archives at wsbradio.
