In my first show of the year, I came up with some bold predictions and some not-so-bold predictions. I didn’t get through every last word of them on the air, so I decided to pare down my notes and post them for easy access. (Yes, this is pared down!) Given my number one prediction: “Trump crashes, Cruz rises, JEB steals super Tuesday,” I was particularly motivated to post my list when I saw today’s Wall Street Journal headline “Cruz Vaults Past Trump in Iowa.” Could be Trump is on his way to crashing, and Cruz is obviously rising, but will JEB steal Super Tuesday? That brings up a question I hadn’t thought of a month ago…
Does Super Tuesday even matter anymore? The rules changes in the Republican primary process means that all primaries and caucuses before March 15 (except South Carolina) will award delegates proportionally to their vote percentages, so this could be a neck-and-neck–and-neck! race for another month or so. Even New Hampshire might not be a must-win-or-place contest as it once was. From what I can tell, no one–Democrat or Republican–has ever been nominated who hasn’t won first or second in New Hampshire, but I think if JEB takes third place (or even fourth!) he might break that rule. (Perhaps I should modify my “JEB steals super Tuesday” to “JEB surprises in New Hampshire”–not as much pizzazz, but let’s just say, JEB’s trajectory is about to change–that is, if I’m at all correct in my extremely cynical suspicion that this is all a bit manipulated…)
Top Ten Predictions for 2016
- BIG Election Surprise
- BOLD prediction…Trump crashes, Cruz rises, JEB steals super Tuesday